Pakistan tops China Index of PRC influence; Germany emerges as highest ranked European country

• The China Index 2022, the first initiative to measure and compare the People‘s Republic of China (PRC)‘s global influence, launches with 82 countries today.
• Pakistan tops the overall rankings; Cambodia is 2nd and Singapore is 3rd; Germany is the highest European country in the China Index 2022 in 19th position.
• The Index reveals a nuanced pattern of PRC influence at play in different countries and regions around the world by breaking influence down into 9 Domains: Academia, Domestic Politics, Economy, Foreign Policy, Law Enforcement, Media, Military, Society and Technology.
• PRC influence can be understood across a three-cluster spectrum: an Ideology cluster based on influence in Academia, Media, and Society, a Dependence cluster based on Technology, Domestic Politics and Economy, and a final Rulemaking cluster comprising the Military, Law Enforcement, and Foreign Policy Domains.

New research unveiled today provides a vital tool in understanding the full spectrum of China‘s influence activities in 82 countries.

The China Index 2022 is the first research initiative to measure and compare PRC influence overseas, allowing academics, civil society advocates, media, and policymakers to better understand related issues and conduct comparative analysis across different countries and regions.

The Index is published by the China in the World (CITW) network, an initiative of Doublethink Lab, a Taiwan-based non-profit focused on countering digital disinformation and strengthening democratic resilience. CITW and the Index connect hundreds of China researchers and experts worldwide.

Pakistan tops the ranking, with Cambodia in 2nd position and Singapore in 3rd; Germany is the highest ranking European country, in 19th position. Rankings are determined by summing graded responses to 99 Indicators, each of which observes a single discreet instance of PRC influence. These Indicators are devised by the Index Committee of experts in PRC influence tactics, and split equally across nine Domains (Media, Academia, Economy, Society, Military, Technology, Law Enforcement, Local Politics, and Foreign Policy).

The Index provides journalists with a reference point to understand PRC influence in its entirety rather than on a case-by-case basis, and as a contextual tool to compare the thematic nature of PRC influence across different regions. Indicators also provide an evidence-based jump-off point for further reporting.

China Index regional partner for Pakistan, Shahzeb Jillani, who is a veteran journalist with more than two decades’ experience reporting to and from the country for global news organizations, noted that the Index provides an opportunity for Pakistanis to assess how Beijing‘s footprint and influence has expanded. “Many in Pakistan may be surprised that of the 80+ countries in the Index, their country has come on top. One can only hope that this will encourage Pakistanis to debate the pros and cons of the relationship and what it could mean for the future.”

Pakistan emerges as the frontrunner in what China Index research lead and Doublethink Lab Chair Dr. Puma Shen refers to as the “Dependence cluster“ of PRC influence comprising the Economy, Technology and Domestic Politics Domains. Pakistan also places first under an ultimate “Rulemaking cluster” of influence in the Military, Law Enforcement and Foreign Policy Domains.

Taiwan ranks 11th overall but tops an “Ideology cluster“ of PRC influence, comprising the Academia, Media and Society Domains.

Germany emerges in 6th position in the Ideology cluster. “The research suggests the PRC is trying to influence the middle class in Germany through academic and media-based linkages, perhaps as a means of influencing the wider European region,” Shen said.

“Completing the Index responses made clear there is an urgent need to know more about what the Chinese Communist Party is doing in Germany,” added Didi Kirsten Tatlow, Newsweek‘s Berlin-based International Affairs Correspondent focusing on China, and the China Index‘s local expert for Germany. “This is a matter of concern as it touches directly on Germany‘s sovereignty and ability to manage its interests, including the democratic system. We are in a fluid moment where perceptions are changing.”

The UK is the second-highest ranking geography in the European region, in 27th position overall. Martin Thorley, an independent academic and Index research partner for the UK, said the results shows that local level engagement is a bigger feature of UK-Chinese relations than typically thought.

“The UK‘s underlying exposure to PRC influence is spread widely rather than focused on one or two metrics where it is exceptionally high,” Thorley said. “That said, the findings suggest that local level linkages play an important role in the wider relationship. We believe such links became far more prevalent during the Cameron-Osborne years, as cities and regions followed Westminster‘s lead. Some aspects of current national government exposure are also likely to be a legacy from the same period.”

From a regional perspective, East and Southeast Asia emerges in lead position with an average influence score of 48%, potentially due to the prominence of the Chinese diaspora in Index countries. Central Asia is a close second with an average score of 43.5%. The global average score is 32.3%.

China Index data also allows for PRC influence to be understood from the perspectives of three “Layers”: Exposure, Pressure and Effect, as each of the 99 Indicators is classified according to one of these three groupings.

The result suggests that China‘s implementation of network connections with countries may have a greater bearing on the implementation of China-friendly policies than its exertion of coercive pressure.

Certain external factors predict scores of China Index data: Imports as a percentage of total imports has a robust positive correlation with overall influence scores — a result echoed in other quantitative studies.

The number of overseas Chinese students correlates positively with the Academia Domain, while GDP, GDP per capita, and reduced corruption is positively associated with higher Pressure Layer scores. This may suggest that the PRC employs coercive Pressure influence when it cannot leverage corrupt networks to achieve influence results.

CITW‘s Wu Min-hsuan said: “The China Index provides a unique research tool for academics, civil society organizations, media and policymakers to identify and respond to PRC influence operations in their area of concern. As China policy discussions evolve, we hope that global lawmakers will study the domain-specific results carefully as they continue working on their respective China strategies.”

Next year, the Index‘s constituent Indicators will be updated, and the research refreshed. Data from additional countries will also be incorporated, enabling researchers to gauge whether PRC influence in waxing or waning across geographies and Domains.

China Index 2022 raw data is available for download here, allowing interested stakeholders to conduct complementary research. The full China Index research report is available for download here.

For further information about the China Index and CITW, including in-depth research takeaways and interviews, please register to attend the project launch on Dec. 8 via Livestream and in Berlin here or email david@doublethinklab.org.

About Doublethink Lab
Doublethink Lab (Doublethink) is a civil society organization devoted to studying the malign influence of digital authoritarianism. Doublethink‘s strengths lie in the ability to combine a diverse set of research approaches in the social, behavioral, and computational sciences to study state-funded propaganda campaigns, psychological warfare, and related information operations. Doublethink seeks to foster global networks connecting academics, democracy movements, digital communities, like-minded CSOs, and experts on the People‘s Republic of China, in order to strengthen global democratic resilience.

About China In The World (CITW)
In 2019, Doublethink Lab and its partners established the China In The World (CITW) network to bring together stakeholders researching the People‘s Republic of China (PRC)‘s global influence and disinformation strategies. CITW aims to support and unite these stakeholders, improve global and regional awareness of related challenges, and strengthen democratic resilience worldwide. CITW oversees publication of the China Index, the first cross-regional initiative to measure and compare the PRC‘s influence in various countries.